GER40 — Market Outlook | SHORT trading plan of 21.07.2026
SHORT scenario of 21.07.2026 | priority is the low of the weekly dealing range (W DR)
Key Levels
| Level | Value |
|---|---|
| Point A (invalidation) | 25923.00 |
| Target B | 21860.0 |
Price is in the premium zone of the weekly range, a reaction from the monthly fractal, interaction with the daily imbalance (W fractal → D FVG).
The compression move (LRLR) points to buyer weakness and the potential for an impulsive move down.
Priority is a downward move towards the low of the weekly dealing range (21860.0).
Higher-Timeframe Context
Higher-timeframe context
- Higher context: short
- Targets reached: monthly and quarterly liquidity
- Next targets: a correction into the discount zone of the monthly dealing range (M DR)
Market phase
- Market phase: trend
- Basis: a reaction taken from the monthly fractal (M fractal)
- Scenario: short towards the low of the weekly dealing range (W DR)
Execution Context
Price position and interaction
- Price position: premium of the weekly dealing range (W DR)
- Interaction: W fractal → D FVG
- Additional factors: a compression move (LRLR)
Priority and target
- Priority: short
- Nearest target: 21860.0 — the low of the weekly dealing range (W DR)
- Next target: the discount zone of the monthly dealing range (M DR)
Invalidation
While price stays below the weekly fractal, the bearish scenario remains valid.
Outcome
not realised
The boundaries of these ranges can be checked for free: they are built from the extremes of the structure, and the extremes are drawn by our open indicator Focusprofit. Market Structure — published in the TradingView library, one click to add, no invite needed. Open the same data and build the boundaries yourself. The rest of the markup on the chart — order flow, imbalances, MTF — is added by the closed Trade Model.
Open in TradingView →4H Ranges
Ranges: 1 · worked out: 0 · did not: 0 · in progress: 1
| Formed | Boundaries | Outcome | Check |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | 24610.50 – 25923.00 | in progress | lowest price after the lower boundary 24646.50 — not broken; on top, the month's high 25894.50 against 25923.00 — structure intact |
Your thoughts?
Which scenario do you see: a move down to the low of the weekly dealing range, or buyers returning above the weekly fractal?
This is not investment advice. Analytical market structure overview.
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