Practice / USDPLN
MARKET ANALYSIS PRACTICE · USDPLN

A plan cancelled by the rule — the second one hit the target

A random 2018 bar on the US dollar against the Polish zloty, weekly chart. The first plan — a monthly fractal in the discount of the weekly range, the target at its high — is cancelled by the rule: the indicator showed that the trading range is wider and broken on the monthly, and a decision outside a trading range breaks the rules. Price did reach the first target afterwards; that is said plainly, and the cancellation is right by the rule, not by the outcome. The second plan is built on a new, valid range: a monthly fractal in discount, confirmed by a weekly imbalance, with a strong order flow inside. Point A 3.6159, point B 4.30775; the high reached 4.6185 — the target was hit.

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We take a random bar in history, define the narrative, and read the market live — no scripts, just structure and facts.

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BREAKDOWN

Step by step

1. First the trend — from the latest trading ranges

2. Lows hold, highs break

3. Price corrected into the discount zone

4. Monthly fractal — reaction with a most traded volume zone

5. Target — the high of the weekly trading range

6. Indicator: the range is wider and broken on the monthly

7. A decision outside the trading range breaks the rules

8. Plan cancelled. We keep tracking

9. Price reached the target, but two ranges were broken — a risk

10. A new trading range — and it is valid

11. Confirmation: weekly imbalance

12. Strong order flow, two stars

13. The idea is alive while price holds above point A

14. The range played out as planned

IN THE METHODOLOGY

The order of the walkthrough

The trend is read from the latest trading ranges: the lows hold, the highs break.

Liquidity is looked for in discount; the monthly fractal and the reaction from it are read on the higher timeframe, the working chart stays weekly.

Three questions are asked before the entry: where price is, what it interacts with, where it goes — and where points A and B are.

The indicator comes in after the manual markup. Here it showed there is no live range, and the plan was cancelled by the rule: a decision outside a trading range breaks the rules.

The invalidation is named in advance: the idea is alive while price holds above point A.

KEEP GOING

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